Introduction to this report: textile manufacturing Q1 performance exceeded expectations in a large area.Lodigame, reverse establishmentLodigamePay attention to the follow-up revision performance may be; Hong Kong stock market sales performance differentiation, is expected to be "low before high" in 2024. Abstract: investment suggestions: 1) Brand end: the overall recovery trend of the terminal is established, and there is differentiation among brands, which is optimistic.Lodigame① stable profit + high dividendLodigame: recommend Hailan House, Fuana, good news bird; ② strong fundamentals + undervalued: recommend Bosideng, Bienlefen; ③ 2024 event catalysis + long-term high prosperity: recommend Anta Sports, Li Ning, Tabu International, 361degrees. 2) Manufacturing side: the trend of order recovery is secure, and the leading company has the customer logic of grabbing share. Recommend Huali Group and Shenzhou International to benefit from Blum Oriental; in addition, recommend high dividend + stable growth of "Red Horse Shuangxiong" Weixing shares and New Australia shares. Textile manufacturing: the upper and middle reaches of the repair situation differentiation, Q1 performance exceeded expectations in a large area. 1) 2023: on the revenue side, the upstream growth rate and repair progress are better than those of the mid-stream, mainly due to the adoption of price-for-volume measures in the upstream to win orders before the end of destocking and the resumption of demand. At the profit end, the growth rate and repair progress of the middle reaches are better than those of the upstream, mainly due to the price of the upstream for volume and profit pressure, while the gradual repair of the utilization rate of mid-stream capacity leads to a steady improvement in profit margins. 2) 2024Q1: revenue / profit end, the growth rate and recovery progress of the middle reaches are better than those of the upstream, mainly because the recovery space of the capacity utilization of the middle reaches is relatively larger after the end of deposting, while the capacity expansion and recruitment plan return to normal at the same time, the scale effect is expected to be further reflected, while in the upstream, under the background of weak terminal recovery, the unit price rebounds relatively slowly, and the profit margin repair pace is slightly slower. Hong Kong stock market sports: sales differentiation is obvious, Anta Sports, 361 degrees is relatively better. 1) Plate level: from 2023 to now, the flow performance of the sports plate is slightly better than that of the clothing industry as a whole, and the board α has narrowed, showing the following characteristics as a whole: ① pipeline differentiation is obvious: companies that conform to K-type trend and multi-brand strategy perform better. ② focus on the elimination of inventory: inventory / sales ratio return to health, flow growth > income growth. 2) individual stock level: the multi-brand strategic advantage of Anta Sports shows further, the sales resilience is outstanding, and the expense rate during the period is improved, and the operation advantage is highlighted, which leads to the better-than-expected performance in 2023. 361 degrees 2023 revenue and profit, 2024Q1 flow are higher than expected, and the operating end of the store in 2023 exceeded expectations, the performance of the overall leading sports plate. Outlook: 1) Manufacturing side: the order recovery trend is clear, the reversal is established, Adidas and Deckers raise the latest fiscal year revenue guidelines, and pay attention to the possibility of manufacturing performance improvement brought about by subsequent downstream sales guidelines. 2) Hong Kong stock market movement: the growth rate of running water in 2024 is expected to be "low before and then high", and the sports year is worth looking forward to. In the medium and long term, the domestic sports industry has entered a new stage of steady total growth and the emergence of structural opportunities, and is optimistic that multi-brand strategies fully enjoy industry growth dividends, as well as outdoor and other high-prosperity subdivision track growth. Risk hint: overseas inflation exceeds expectations, industry competition intensifies [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of third parties, not the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.