It closed on April 19th.CasitsunodepositbonusThe closing price of lh2409, the main contract for live pigs, was 18170 yuan, with an increase of about 1.Casitsunodepositbonus.59%. The highest price of the day is 18190 yuan and the lowest price is 17860 yuan.
Market review
Recently, the pig market has entered a fierce game between supply and demand, the main line of pig prices is stable, and some small rises and falls have been adjusted. As of April 18, the national average price of live pigs was 15.01 yuan / kg, down 0.03 yuan / kg from the previous month. On the 18th, the weekly trading volume of pig futures was more than 216000 lots, a decrease of more than 1000 hands compared with the week before last week, and a position of more than 66000 hands, which was basically the same as the week before last week.
Supply side
According to the joint data of the National Bureau of Statistics and five ministries, the number of live pigs in China decreased in the first quarter. Since the first quarter of 2023, the stock of fertile sows decreased for 5 consecutive quarters, and the number of live pigs decreased in the first quarter due to the reduction of production capacity. In the first quarter, 194.55 million pigs were fenced nationwide, down 2.2 percent from the same period last year; at the end of the first quarter, 408.5 million pigs were kept nationwide, down 5.2 percent from the same period last year. At the end of the first quarter, 39.92 million Neng sows were kept in stock, down 7.3% from the same period last year. The changes in pig production capacity shown by the above data have led to the market expectation of "bottoming out in the first quarter and improving in the second quarter". According to the historical change in the number of piglets lagging behind the change in the number of sows, it is estimated that the time difference between January and March is the relatively low point of the birth of piglets, and the subsequent upward trend corresponds to the low point of supply from July to September. Due to the large number of high-yielding sows and the reluctance of companies to destabilize after large-scale investment, the supply of live pigs is expected to still exceed demand.
Demand side
The slaughtering operation rate last week was 27.10%, down 0.32 percentage points from the week before last week and 6.00% lower than the same period last year. During the week, the start of construction decreased more and less, and the overall start was slightly lower than last week. Last week, the lack of obvious positive, downstream white bars rely mainly on rigid demand consumption, the market purchase and sales is dull, the local goods are normal, but the competition for export goods is fierce, the manufacturers are not fast, the pressure on the pigs fell last week, some white strips passively followed down, the manufacturers continued to lose money, the overall shrinking price remained high and fresh sales, and there was a narrow decline in start-up as a whole. At present, manufacturers do not actively enter the warehouse in the same period last year, and the overall start-up is on the low side compared with the same period last year.
Summary
As the temperature turns hot, the price difference of the market standard fertilizer is hanging upside down seriously, and the pig enterprises intend to reduce the weight of the column. Although the overall social dominance has increased, the increase is still limited. The market as a whole is in the stage of de-storage, and the depth of de-storage still needs to be observed continuously. The overall terminal consumption is poor, the price of white strips in many places is still dominated by price reduction, the profit situation of Maobai difference in the slaughterhouse is poor, it is difficult to have the driving force to pull up, and pig prices as a whole are in the off-season rhythm and shock. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the increase of consumption and the average weight of the market.
(Liu Yu Futures Trading Consulting Certificate number: Z0012343)