An introduction to this reportPokerhandsvideosThe press conference of the State News Office made it clear to the real estate that "rational adjustment and phased adjustment are conducive to the construction of the new model and the clearing of the traditional production capacity market" has become the key words. We believe that the industry needs the last leap to reach a new balance. Abstract: the new office of the state council held a press conference to point out the follow-up development direction of the industry: "we should treat this round of real estate adjustment rationally", which positively responded to the current round of real estate adjustment; "the phased adjustment of real estate is conducive to the follow-up construction of a new model of real estate", which brings reassurance to indemnificatory apartment for future development. "because the traditional production capacity can be cleared from the market, developers can build better houses and provide better services, which is also beneficial to consumers." if the traditional production capacity is cleared, it means the clearance of developers and the realization of sold land. Based on the official tone, we discuss the follow-up development path of the industry. the following two parts of the analysis are based on four important assumptions (only for discussion). Does not represent the future actual policy direction): 1) the real estate market clearing is expected; 2) the path of clearing is the balance sheet contraction; 3) the corresponding balance sheet contraction depends more on external forces. 4) taking "Zhengzhou acquisition Policy" as the model, the main body of the acquisition of second-hand houses / new houses is defined as "housing bank". Based on the assumption that the real estate industry has the characteristics of a large balance sheet, the contraction of the balance sheet will mark the end of the industry adjustment, and if the housing bank can make a large-scale acquisition, it can accelerate the liquidation of the industry. Industry inventory is still at a high level, and the balance sheet of real estate enterprises is still relatively large mutual confirmation. Since 2024, the policy of "trade in the old for the new", mainly by means of acquisitions such as the state-owned investment platform, has emerged frequently. If it is promoted on a large scale, it can rapidly expand the cash flow statement in a short period of time, solve the debt payment problem, and make the balance sheet shrink rapidly. Complete the industry clearance. However, determining the purchase price under the rent pricing model means that the price is under some pressure, but it will also accelerate the clearing of the industry, which is conducive to the long-term development of the industry. Based on the assumption, after the balance sheet shrinks, we can expect a re-inflationary cycle of economic improvement brought about by the decline in factor costs. On the one hand, we estimate that if the inventory elimination cycle is 1.PokerhandsvideosThe purchase price fluctuates within 5000,000,000 yuan per square meter, corresponding to a total purchase amount of 90.30 trillion yuan per square meter, which is of the order of 10 trillion yuan as a whole. On the other hand, real estate is accounted for by virtual rent in GDP, implying that the rate of return of real estate is more than 2%, which means that there is room for downside in factor costs. After the completion of balance sheet contraction, the improvement of marginal efficiency brought about by urban renewal, rather than the diminishing marginal efficiency brought about by the expansion of urban radius, can bring about a new cycle of re-inflation. Housing is not speculation, housing is gradually definancialized, and will eventually enter a commodity attribute cycle dominated by demand. Although we are not sure how the real estate industry will eventually adjust, the policy of housing speculation confirms that housing will eventually return to commodity attributes, not capital goods, and reconstruct a more reasonable volume-price relationship and return to the road of growth in a healthy manner. The selection of low-leverage companies is still the core, continue to suggest the direction of restructuring, the beneficiaries of restructuring are Xuhui holding Group, Sunchuang China, etc., and continue to recommend park companies, including Zhongxin Group, Merchants Shekou, and leading real estate enterprises recommend Poly Development. Risk hint: the industry clearing has pressure on the highly indebted real estate enterprises, the industry adjustment time is too long to increase the business pressure, and there are difficulties in the realization of important assumptions [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of the third party, not the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
